What a fun start to 2025 we’ve had! The word of the year has been tariffs there’s simply no escaping it. Every day, President Donald Trump seems to say that six-letter word, and every day, there are new statements about 25% tariffs on Canada, then 50% tariffs on Canada, and now 200% tariffs on EU wine. The back-and-forth nature of it all is enough to make the market dizzy.
With that in mind, I thought it would be interesting to take a quick look back at one of the most famous trade wars in history, examine its implications, and ask: Is history just repeating itself?
Trade Wars: More Than Just Tariffs
Trade wars have always been about more than just tariffs and economic policies—they’re about national pride, political leverage, and often, a seemingly small issue that spirals into a full-scale economic battle. Today’s trade disputes centre around semiconductors, vehicles, rare earth minerals, steel, aluminium, and alcohol and that’s just the beginning. Yet, they bear a striking resemblance to one of the most famous trade conflicts of the 20th century: The Chicken War.
The Chicken War: A Feathered Economic Battle
The Chicken War of the 1960s wasn’t fought with weapons but with tariffs and retaliatory measures that rippled across industries. It all started when American farmers pioneered industrialized poultry farming, dramatically reducing the cost of chicken. With this newfound efficiency, the U.S. flooded the European market with cheap poultry, threatening local farmers in France and West Germany.
Feeling the pressure, European nations lobbied for protectionist measures, and in 1962, the European Economic Community (EEC) the precursor to the EU imposed heavy tariffs on imported American chicken. Washington did not take kindly to this move. In response, the U.S. retaliated by imposing tariffs on European goods, including trucks, brandy, and starches. And just like that, the trade war was on.
While it might have seemed like a minor economic squabble at the time, the consequences of the Chicken War were long-lasting. One of the most significant outcomes was the infamous 25% tariff the U.S. placed on light trucks a measure initially aimed at Europe but one that later impacted Japan and South Korea. This tariff, known as the “Chicken Tax,” still affects the auto industry today, making foreign-made pickups significantly more expensive in the American market.
The Takeaway: Different Goods, Same Game
The Chicken War teaches us that trade wars rarely remain confined to their initial battlefront. Tariffs on one product often lead to broader retaliations, affecting entire industries in unforeseen ways. Just as a dispute over poultry reshaped global automotive trade, Trump’s determination to correct what he sees as an unfair trade surplus could ripple through global supply chains for decades to come.
So, are we doomed to repeat history? If there’s one lesson to be learned, it’s that trade wars rarely produce clear winners. Protectionism may provide temporary relief to domestic industries, but in the long run, it often leads to higher consumer costs and strained international relations. Whether today’s leaders will heed this lesson remains to be seen but if the past is any indication, the road ahead is likely to be anything but smooth
By James Trescothick
Head of Market Research and Market Analysis
Risk Disclaimer: This information is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Financial markets involve risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research and seek professional advice before making investment decisions.
