European bourses are set for a mixed start, after solid gains across the board on Friday, which saw the S&P 500 close over 3% higher.
· Easing inflation expectations helped stocks higher last week
· Oil & gold rise as G7 summit focuses on more sanctions for Moscow
· US durable goods orders are due later, USD is still struggling to gain traction
US stocks posted a solid end to trading last week despite rising recession fears. Concerns over slowing global growth were being played out in the commodities market, with base metals and oil losing ground across the week. Lower commodity prices cooled inflation fears and aggressive Federal Reserve hike bets, pulling the USD lower and boosting demand for stocks. The Nasdaq outperformed its peers, closing 3.3% higher on Friday and rallying 7.5% across the week.
Over the weekend the Group of 7 leaders (G7) met to discuss the ongoing Ukraine war and its impact on food and energy prices and the global economy. The group pledged indefinite support for Ukraine whilst looking to manage the global fallout from Russia’s invasion. The meeting came as Russia defaults on its foreign debt for the first time since 1918.
European bourses are pointing to a mixed start with the DAX set to open 0.2% lower while the FTSE is set to open 0.05% higher.
Oil
As the summit is set to continue today, oil prices are on the rise amid expectations that the West will take aim at Russian oil and gas exports. The measures could include a price cap on Russian oil and gas imports in addition to further sanctions. The prospect of tighter supply is rising as the leaders look to cut Russia’s ability to fund the war in Ukraine. Oil prices will be in focus across the week as investors look ahead to the OPEC+ meeting on Thursday, where the group of producer nations are expected to stick to the plan agreed at the start of the month, to release 648k bpd more in July and August, up from the previously agreed 342k bpd.
Gold
Gold prices are on the rise extending gains from Friday, although the precious metal lost 0.7% across last week. Gold rose on Friday on USD weakness as investors dialed back aggressive Federal Reserve rate hike bets as global economic slowdown fears rose. As the new week begins, Gold is pushing higher above 1835, boosted by the weaker USD and following the start of the G7 meeting, with leaders expected to announce a ban on Russian gold imports from Russia in the coming days.
Looking ahead
The European economic calendar is quiet today leaving the G7 updates in focus. Heading towards the afternoon US durable goods orders are expected to show a slight slowdown to 0.1% in May, down from 0.5% in April. The data comes as the USD struggles to find support amid rising fears of an economic slowdown. Recession fears have picked up considerably over the past week after Federal Reserve Chair Powell acknowledged that a recession was possible. The IMF is the latest to weigh into the debate, slashing US GDP growth for this year to 2.9% but also said that it believes that the US economy will narrowly avoid a recession.
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